Wednesday, April 9, 2014

The Lineup Card: Seven Memorably Misleading April Performances | Baseball Prospectus

Nice post at Baseball Prospectus about small sample sizes. I remember this one very well because I was just a year or so younger than this writer:

"6. Danny Heep, 1983
In 1983, I was 11 years old and rooting for the Mets. Danny Heep opened the season in right field. He ended April with a .362/.446/.574 slash line.

Who is the wonder acquired from Houston, young Harry rejoiced. All the Mets had to do was give up Mike Scott.

Imagine my confusion and dismay when the Mets called up some prospect and handed him Heep's well-deserved job. No more checking the morning papers for Heep's place among the batting leaders.

Well, it didn't take long to get over that. Darryl Strawberry—lesson learned. It took longer to realize the full cost of the Mike Scott trade, but that's another story."

Of course, there is a song about small sample sizes:

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